The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) — closed signal from October 30, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 71 days.
The thesis — published October 30, 2025
TJX sells well-known brands for less, which draws in budget-minded shoppers. The stock climbed about 13% over three months, then dipped a bit, and a respected fund added shares. With positive mood and holidays coming, the price could recover in 1-3 months if products sell well. We keep the position small because the recent trend looks weak and the valuation is not cheap, so there is less margin for error.
Primary drivers
- Shoppers trading down favor discount stores, lifting traffic and sales
- Price looks very sold off lately, leaving room for a short-term rebound
- Large investor buying suggests confidence and can help support the price
- Trend is soft and shares are not cheap, which could limit near-term upside
How it played out
TJX: target reached in 71 days
Lyra published TJX at 142.21 on 2025-10-30 with 12% expected growth and a 158.82 target. The thesis pointed to shoppers trading down, room for a short-term rebound after a sold-off move, large investor buying, and holiday demand. It also flagged the soft trend and valuation as limits on near-term upside.
Inside the window, TJX reached a 159.48 peak on 2026-01-09, above the 158.82 target. The peak gain was 12.1%, and the target was reached in 71 days. The stock ended the window at 150.08. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-19, TJX reported fiscal third-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. Barron's reported adjusted earnings of 1.28 per share, revenue of 15.1 billion, and comparable sales growth of 5%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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