Track record · closed signal

Range Resources Corporation (RRC) — closed signal from July 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

RRC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$38.07 Published $45.45 Target $36.27 Window close $39.86 Peak
$37.12 – $38.11Entry zone — fair-value band
$38.07Published — price the day we called it
$45.45Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$39.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$39.86
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.27
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 12, 2025 – October 10, 2025

The thesis — published July 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$45.45
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$37.12 – $38.11
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$38.07
published July 12, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Forward gas prices are getting stronger as hurricane season nears, and the soon-to-open Mountain Valley Pipeline should let Range sell its gas at better prices. The firm can pull gas for only $1.75 per unit and has cut debt to 1.2 times cash profit, freeing cash to buy back stock. Shares look washed out after recent selling, so picking them up near $37.5-$38.5 could ride winter price strength toward $46.

Primary drivers

  • Cheapest gas producer; still makes free cash even if gas falls below $2.
  • Recent trading looks oversold and buying strength is quietly returning.
  • New Mountain Valley Pipeline will let the firm sell gas at higher regional prices.
  • Debt cut sharply, giving room to buy back shares when prices look cheap.

How it played out

RRC: thesis stayed below the target

Lyra published RRC at $38.07 on July 12, 2025, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to stronger forward gas prices, hurricane season, the Mountain Valley Pipeline, low gas production costs, lower debt at 1.2 times cash profit, and room for buybacks.

Inside the July 12 to October 10 window, RRC peaked at $39.86 on October 2, a 4.7% gain. It never reached the $45.45 target. The stock ended at $36.27. The thesis only partially played out because the price rose for a while, but stayed below the target and finished under the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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