Track record · closed signal

Unilever PLC (ADR) (UL) — closed signal from October 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026 — -0.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$67.88 Published $84.83 Target $67.31 Window close $69.35 Peak
$74.07 – $76.56Entry zone — fair-value band
$67.88Published — price the day we called it
$84.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$69.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$67.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-0.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$67.31
last close inside the window, ended January 28, 2026
Peak price
$69.35
peak on November 7, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$84.83
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$74.07 – $76.56
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$67.88
published October 30, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Unilever is a steadier stock, and the price looks tired with signs that buyers are returning. Reports show frozen and diabetic-friendly foods are growing, which helps the company's categories. If interest rates ease, many investors may favor safer names like this. We think the price could work gradually toward $66-$69 in 1-3 months, while currency swings and strong rivals may limit profit and price gains.

Primary drivers

  • Well-known everyday brands that hold up when markets get bumpy
  • Growing demand for frozen and diabetic-friendly foods lifts sales
  • Recent trading shows improving interest from buyers and steadier tone
  • Currency swings and strong competition may limit pricing and profits

How it played out

UL: the 12% thesis did not play out

Lyra published UL at $67.88 on 2025-10-30 with expected growth of 12% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to well-known everyday brands, demand for frozen and diabetic-friendly foods, improving buyer interest, and a steadier tone. It also cited currency swings and strong competition as limits on pricing and profits.

Inside the window, UL peaked at $69.35 on 2025-11-07, a 2.2% gain. That was below the move Lyra expected. It never got there. The stock ended at $67.31 on 2026-01-28. The thesis only partially played out, because the price rose early but did not reach the expected growth.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-08, The Times reported that Unilever had spun off The Magnum Ice Cream Company, which debuted in Amsterdam with a valuation of €7.8 billion and also had listings in London and New York.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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