Track record · closed signal

Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) — closed signal from October 30, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026 — +14.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ALGN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$146.34 Published $178.53 Target $167.04 Window close $174.67 Peak
$142.00 – $146.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$146.34Published — price the day we called it
$178.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$174.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$167.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+14.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+19.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$167.04
last close inside the window, ended January 28, 2026
Peak price
$174.67
peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$178.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$142.00 – $146.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$146.34
published October 30, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The company beat Wall Street's profit and sales targets, and the stock jumped about 14% on heavy trading, showing lots more people are buying than usual. We prefer buying on dips after this big move. Over the next 1-3 months, we expect the price jump to hold if new products help offset softer demand in the U.S. dental market. If buying, plan to cut risk if the stock falls back below the post-earnings jump area.

Primary drivers

  • Quarter beat forecasts; shares jumped about 14% on strong trading
  • International demand for Invisalign is rising, lifting overall sales
  • Recent price action leans upward, with buyers more active than usual
  • Good mood after results may keep interest high in the near term

How it played out

ALGN: rose 19.4% but target was not reached

Lyra published ALGN at 146.34 on 2025-10-30. The thesis expected 22% growth over the short-term window, with a target of 178.53. It pointed to a quarter that beat forecasts, a share jump of about 14% on strong trading, rising international Invisalign demand, upward price action, and better mood after results.

Inside the window, ALGN peaked at 174.67 on 2026-01-16, up 19.4%. That stayed below the 178.53 target. The target was never reached. By 2026-01-28, the stock ended at 167.04. The thesis partially played out, but it missed its stated target.

What happened during the window

On October 30, 2025, Barron's reported that Align's third-quarter adjusted earnings were $2.61 per share and revenue was $995.7 million. It also reported that global clear aligner volumes rose 4.9% from the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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