Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from October 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026 — +7.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.07 Published $37.81 Target $36.52 Window close $38.23 Peak
$32.60 – $33.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.07Published — price the day we called it
$37.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.23Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 71 days.

At window close
+7.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$36.52
last close inside the window, ended January 28, 2026
Peak price
$38.23
peak on January 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
71

The thesis — published October 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.60 – $33.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.07
published October 30, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks ready for a rebound after a pullback. Recent trading suggests buyers are starting to return, and the company's finances are steady. News highlighted its 10-year outperformance and steady dividend increases. Q3 results arrive Nov 5-6, giving a clear near-term event. If rates ease, cash flow from its properties can be valued higher. If guidance stays firm, shares could work back toward recent highs in 1-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • After a pullback, signs suggest buyers are returning in recent trading
  • Q3 results on Nov 5-6 give a clear near-term event that can move shares
  • Rising dividend and more properties support steady, growing cash flow
  • Falling interest rates can lower costs and lift profits for a real estate trust

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 71 days

Lyra published CTRE at $34.07 on 2025-10-30 with a short-term view. The thesis expected 12% growth toward $37.81. It pointed to buyers returning after a pullback, Q3 results on Nov 5-6, a rising dividend, more properties, and the chance that falling interest rates could help a real estate trust.

Inside the window, CTRE reached the target. The stock peaked at $38.23 on 2026-01-09, with a 12.2% gain, and it got there in 71 days. It ended the window at $36.52, below the peak but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 5, CareTrust reported third-quarter results, and Investors Business Daily said earnings grew 35% to 35 cents a share while sales grew 71% to $132.4 million. The same report said CareTrust acquired 12 skilled nursing facilities and one skilled nursing campus across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions for $436.5 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals