Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$194.53 Published $237.33 Target $165.70 Window close $207.52 Peak
$192.00 – $196.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$194.53Published — price the day we called it
$237.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$207.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$165.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$207.52
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$165.70
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 29, 2025 – January 27, 2026

The thesis — published October 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$237.33
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$192.00 – $196.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$194.53
published October 29, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is riding the wave of interest in AI and has ties to defense work, where spending on AI is expected to grow. Big computing projects also lift demand for its software. The stock has been strong lately, but that can invite quick pullbacks, so be careful with timing. Over the next 0-3 months, new contracts in government and business AI matter most. Prefer buying on dips instead of chasing sharp jumps. Price targets from analysts have not fully caught up, adding some risk.

Primary drivers

  • Growing need for Palantir's AI tools from the military and large companies
  • Recent strong price run with lots more people buying than usual in the market
  • Military AI potential customer base is expanding, lifting future demand
  • Share price may be ahead of analyst targets, which could cap near-term gains

How it played out

PLTR: target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR at 194.53 on 2025-10-29. The thesis expected 22% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to demand for Palantir's artificial intelligence tools from military and large-company customers, a recent strong price run, a wider military customer base, and the risk that the share price was already ahead of analyst targets.

Inside the window, PLTR peaked at 207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 6.7% gain. It stayed below 237.33 and never reached the target. By 2026-01-27 it ended at 165.70. The thesis only partially played out: there was an early move higher, but the expected 22% growth did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On November 03, 2025, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue outlook.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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