Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$210.61 Published $256.93 Target $188.52 Window close $212.18 Peak
$204.98 – $210.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$210.61Published — price the day we called it
$256.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$188.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$188.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 29, 2025 – January 27, 2026

The thesis — published October 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$256.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$204.98 – $210.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$210.61
published October 29, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia just reached a huge milestone, showing it leads in AI chips. New U.S. government supercomputer work adds steady orders, and many on Wall Street still see room up toward $220 in the next few months. Even though the stock ran fast, buying interest is much higher than usual and the recent average price is rising. Plan to buy small amounts on dips to benefit from data center spending while avoiding chasing.

Primary drivers

  • Passing $5T in value signals firm AI lead and strong investor confidence
  • New U.S. energy agency supercomputer work extends steady AI chip demand
  • Buying far above normal and a rising recent average price point to strength
  • Many analysts still see shares drifting toward about $220 in coming weeks

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 210.61 on 2025-10-29 with a short-term thesis for 22% growth to 256.93. The thesis pointed to a $5T valuation milestone, leadership in artificial intelligence chips, U.S. energy agency supercomputer work, unusually strong buying, a rising recent average price, and analysts seeing room toward $220.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 0.7% gain. It never reached 256.93. By 2026-01-27, it ended at 188.52. The published thesis missed on the target and the window ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On January 5, 2026, Nvidia launched Vera Rubin at CES 2026, with partner availability planned for the second half of 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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