Track record · closed signal

UiPath Inc. (PATH) — closed signal from October 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PATH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.28 Published $22.11 Target $14.91 Window close $19.84 Peak
$16.80 – $17.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.28Published — price the day we called it
$22.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$19.84
peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 28, 2025 – January 26, 2026

The thesis — published October 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$22.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.80 – $17.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.28
published October 28, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain the story and growth path - Describe the price trend simply - Flag trust boost and key risks UiPath could rebound because interest is improving and the trend looks gently upward while buying looks steady. The new ISO/IEC 42001 mark for responsible AI should make large companies more comfortable signing deals. A recovery is possible, but watch weaker fundamentals and tight IT budgets. Consider small buys on dips and add only after a clear upward turn.

Primary drivers

  • Investor mood is improving; recent average price trend points up
  • New ISO/IEC 42001 award for responsible AI builds buyer trust
  • Growing use of AI and simple app tools across companies could lift demand
  • Wait for price to turn decisively upward before adding more shares

How it played out

PATH: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published PATH at 17.27 on 2025-10-28 with a short-term rebound thesis. It expected 28% growth toward 22.11. The thesis pointed to improving investor mood, a gently upward recent trend, steady buying, the ISO/IEC 42001 mark for responsible artificial intelligence, and broader use of automation tools across companies.

Inside the window from 2025-10-28 to 2026-01-26, PATH rose to 19.84 on 2025-12-08. That was a 14.8% peak gain, but it stayed below 22.11 and never reached the target. The stock ended at 14.91. The thesis partly played out on the rebound, but the full target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-05, UiPath joined Veeva's partner program for regulated application testing and validation workflows in life sciences. This was an announcement during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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