Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$97.01 Published $116.41 Target $81.98 Window close $100.35 Peak
$94.00 – $98.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$97.01Published — price the day we called it
$116.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$81.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 17% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.35
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$81.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 28, 2025 – January 26, 2026

The thesis — published October 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$116.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.00 – $98.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$97.01
published October 28, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's trend looks healthier. The recent average price is rising, and buying interest seems close to improving. Self-driving and delivery robots add buzz, with 2,000 small units planned for Uber Eats. Some investors are upbeat. If the market stays fairly positive, stronger profits could lift the stock over the next three months. Risks include rules on autonomy and labor, tough competition, and headlines.

Primary drivers

  • Recent average price is rising; buying momentum may soon improve
  • Push into self-driving and delivery robots is picking up speed
  • More investors are speaking positively, pointing to room to grow
  • As sales grow, profits can rise faster, boosting earnings power

How it played out

UBER: target was never reached

Lyra published UBER at $97.01 on 2025-10-28 with an expected gain of 20%. The thesis pointed to a healthier trend, rising recent average price, buying interest that looked close to improving, self-driving and delivery robots, positive investor commentary, and stronger profits if sales kept growing.

Inside the window, UBER rose only as far as $100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 3.4% peak gain. It stayed below the $116.41 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-26, it ended at $81.98. The thesis missed the target and did not play out on price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Uber reported third-quarter gross bookings of $49.7 billion and revenue of $13.47 billion. On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi, according to The Verge.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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