Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from October 27, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 80 days.
The thesis — published October 27, 2025
Intel looks early in a recovery. Profit on each dollar of sales improved by 22 points to about 40%, even though sales only grew a little, showing cost control progress. Interest in the stock is building, but results still trail some rivals. Consider buying on dips in the stated range, then add only if the price forms a higher low and the trend keeps improving over roughly the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Profit margin per sale rose 22 points to about 40%, a clear cost win
- Investor interest and price strength are improving, drawing fresh buyers
- More signs the company's comeback plan is taking hold, lifting confidence
- Delivery on plans and next-gen chip tech still carry real risks
How it played out
INTC: target reached in 80 days
Lyra published INTC at $39.76 on 2025-10-27 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to profit margin per sale rising 22 points to about 40%, improving investor interest and price strength, signs that the comeback plan was taking hold, and real risks around delivery and next-generation chip technology.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $49.71 target in 80 days. It peaked at $54.60 on 2026-01-22, with a 37.3% gain, then ended the window at $45.07 on 2026-01-25. The thesis played out on price. The target was reached before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-22, Intel reported fourth-quarter results. Investors Business Daily reported adjusted earnings of $0.15 a share on $13.67 billion in revenue, and said the company guided for $12.2 billion in first-quarter revenue. On 2026-01-23, Tom's Hardware reported Intel's 2025 revenue at $52.9 billion and a GAAP net loss of $300 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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