Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026 — -14.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $97.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$95.89Published — price the day we called it

$113.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$82.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-14.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+0.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$82.31

last close inside the window, ended January 25, 2026

Peak price

$100.35

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$113.15

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $97.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$95.89

published October 27, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's finances are getting stronger: last quarter it earned over $1B from regular operations, showing the core business is working. A new delivery deal with Hibbett expands its potential customer base and keeps users engaged. Buying interest cooled after a recent dip, and rules or price-sensitive riders are risks. With better profits and fresh partnerships, buying small on dips for a possible 3-month rebound is reasonable.

Primary drivers

Passing $1B in operating profit shows the model is scaling and gaining strength
Hibbett partnership extends delivery reach and brings in more recurring customers
Positive mood and higher trading activity point to ongoing buyer interest
Costs per trip and order are improving, lifting profit on each transaction

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at $95.89 on 2025-10-27 with an expected 18% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to stronger finances, including more than $1B from regular operations, a Hibbett delivery partnership, buyer interest after a dip, and improving costs per trip and order.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 4.7% gain. It stayed below the $113.15 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-01-25, it ended at $82.31. The thesis only partially played out, because the stock rose early but missed the target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Uber reported third-quarter results and gave fourth-quarter guidance. On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi commercial operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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