Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.89 Published $113.15 Target $82.31 Window close $100.35 Peak
$92.00 – $97.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.89Published — price the day we called it
$113.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$82.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.35
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$82.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$113.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.00 – $97.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.89
published October 27, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's finances are getting stronger: last quarter it earned over $1B from regular operations, showing the core business is working. A new delivery deal with Hibbett expands its potential customer base and keeps users engaged. Buying interest cooled after a recent dip, and rules or price-sensitive riders are risks. With better profits and fresh partnerships, buying small on dips for a possible 3-month rebound is reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Passing $1B in operating profit shows the model is scaling and gaining strength
  • Hibbett partnership extends delivery reach and brings in more recurring customers
  • Positive mood and higher trading activity point to ongoing buyer interest
  • Costs per trip and order are improving, lifting profit on each transaction

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at $95.89 on 2025-10-27 with an expected 18% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to stronger finances, including more than $1B from regular operations, a Hibbett delivery partnership, buyer interest after a dip, and improving costs per trip and order.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 4.7% gain. It stayed below the $113.15 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-01-25, it ended at $82.31. The thesis only partially played out, because the stock rose early but missed the target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Uber reported third-quarter results and gave fourth-quarter guidance. On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi commercial operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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