Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Limited (TIGR) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.60 Published $13.89 Target $8.75 Window close $11.35 Peak
$10.00 – $10.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.60Published — price the day we called it
$13.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$11.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$11.35
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$8.75
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
Window
October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+31%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.00 – $10.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.60
published October 27, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TIGR looks like a solid, fairly priced broker stock among U.S.-listed Chinese peers. It scores very well in quality screens, investors seem positive, and it trades cheaper than rivals based on expected profits, so the market could later value it higher. Price action has been helpful, though a bit hot. Rules and China exposure are real risks, but a gentle rise over the next three months seems reasonable if buying on dips.

Primary drivers

  • Top-ranked in peer group for overall quality and value
  • Priced lower than peers on expected profits
  • Investor interest and mood are favorable now
  • Uptrend is improving, showing steady buying interest

How it played out

TIGR: the target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR at 10.6 on 2025-10-27 with a short-term view through 2026-01-25. The thesis expected 31% growth toward 13.89. It pointed to strong peer ranking for quality and value, cheaper expected profits than peers, favorable investor mood, and an improving uptrend. It also noted rule risk and China exposure.

Inside the window, TIGR rose to a peak of 11.35 on 2026-01-06, a 7.1% gain. It never reached 13.89. By 2026-01-25, it ended at 8.75. The thesis partially played out only in the sense that the stock rose for a while, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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