Track record · closed signal

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MARA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$20.25 Published $29.36 Target $10.29 Window close $20.47 Peak
$19.20 – $20.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$20.25Published — price the day we called it
$29.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$20.47
peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+45%
over the measurement window
Target price
$29.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$19.20 – $20.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$20.25
published October 27, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Marathon is a fast-moving stock that could rebound if Bitcoin steadies. The company is adding AI and high-performance computing services, which can bring in money beyond Bitcoin and draw new customers. Traders are optimistic, so a quick bounce is possible, but sharp crypto swings mean using a careful plan. Over the next few months, the setup looks reasonable for patient buyers who stick to a disciplined approach.

Primary drivers

  • Expanding beyond Bitcoin mining into AI and high-performance computing services
  • Recent price fell hard and may snap back if buyers return soon in size
  • Costs, scale, and the balance sheet look better than many other miners
  • Bitcoin-linked swings are large and can boost gains when prices move up

How it played out

MARA: the target was never reached

Lyra published MARA at 20.25 on 2025-10-27 with expected growth of 45%. The thesis pointed to a rebound if Bitcoin steadied, expansion into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services, a hard recent price fall, better costs, scale, and balance sheet than many miners, and large Bitcoin-linked swings.

Inside the window from 2025-10-27 to 2026-01-25, MARA peaked at 20.47 on 2025-10-27, a 1.1% gain. That stayed below the 29.36 target. It never got there. The stock ended at 10.29. The thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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