Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from July 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$67.01 – $67.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$68.85Published — price the day we called it

$74.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$70.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$66.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$70.67

peak on August 20, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$66.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 12, 2025 – October 10, 2025

The thesis — published July 12, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$74.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$67.01 – $67.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$68.85

published July 12, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Coke’s share price slipped 9%, so the stock now costs less than usual compared to expected profits. Trading signs hint that most of the recent selling is over. Research firm Zacks says Coke can avoid any new import taxes because it makes drinks all over the world, a point voters may hear about soon. Results on Jul 24 are expected to show sales up around 6% and fresh share repurchases, which could lift the price toward last year’s $77-78 peak within three months.

Primary drivers

Making drinks in many countries helps protect profits even if 70% import taxes appear.
July 24 report expected to show about 6% sales growth and higher profit per drink.
A 3.1% dividend and $10 billion in planned share buying can help hold up the stock.
Trading patterns suggest sellers are tired and the price is ready to rebound.

How it played out

KO: thesis missed the 74.64 target

Lyra published KO at 68.85 on 2025-07-12 with a short-term 10% growth view and a 74.64 target by 2025-10-10. The thesis pointed to a prior 9% share-price slip, cheaper valuation versus expected profits, trading signs that selling was mostly over, protection from import taxes through local production, expected sales growth around 6%, a 3.1% dividend, and $10 billion in planned share buying.

Inside the window, KO peaked at 70.67 on 2025-08-20, with a 2.6% peak gain. It never reached 74.64. The stock ended at 66.57 on 2025-10-10. The rebound thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-22, Coca-Cola reported second-quarter results and updated full-year guidance. The company also said it planned to launch a U.S. Coca-Cola offering made with cane sugar in the fall of 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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