Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 26, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$186.25 Published $234.66 Target $187.67 Window close $212.18 Peak
$183.98 – $187.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$186.25Published — price the day we called it
$234.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$187.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$187.67
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 26, 2025 – January 24, 2026

The thesis — published October 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$234.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$183.98 – $187.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$186.25
published October 26, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is still the key AI company, and the stock has cooled and is regrouping within a longer uptrend. The price looks steady, and the recent average price is improving. Upcoming Big Tech results will signal how much they plan to spend on AI, which drives demand. If spending and supply stay solid, a next move up is likely; if the economy, parts supply, or rivals pressure near-term orders, downside risk increases.

Primary drivers

  • Leads in chips and systems that power AI, drawing strong customer demand
  • Stock is pausing after gains, with recent average price trending up
  • Big Tech results guide how much they will spend on AI hardware and services
  • Wide attention and heavy trading make it easier to enter and exit positions

How it played out

NVDA: thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published NVDA on 2025-10-26 at $186.25 with expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to leadership in chips and systems for artificial intelligence, a pause after gains with the recent average price trending up, Big Tech spending signals, and heavy trading that made entry and exit easier.

Inside the 2025-10-26 to 2026-01-24 window, NVDA peaked at $212.18 on 2025-10-29 for a 13.9% gain. The target was $234.66, and the stock never reached it. It ended at $187.67. The thesis partly played out because the price rose, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. The company also projected fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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