Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 24, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 87 days.
The thesis — published October 26, 2025
This regional bank is showing healthier results. Profit per share rose 28% compared to last year, helped by the Bremer deal and more fee income. One cost metric was weaker than hoped, but investor mood is positive and interest rates look steady, which supports lending. As merger savings build and price swings calm, the next few months could bring a reasonable, steady return for a portfolio that needs more than just tech names.
Primary drivers
- Profit per share rose 28% compared to last year in the third quarter
- Merging with Bremer and growing fees are boosting steady income
- Investor mood is upbeat and interest rates look steady for now
- Regional banks gain when investors feel comfortable taking more risk
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 87 days
Lyra published ONB at $20.92 for a short-term window from 2025-10-26 to 2026-01-24. The thesis expected 14% growth and a move to $23.70. It pointed to profit per share up 28% from last year in the third quarter, the Bremer deal, growing fee income, steadier interest rates, and better investor mood toward regional banks.
Inside the window, ONB reached the target in 87 days. The peak was $24.78 on 2026-01-22, with a peak gain of 18.4%. It ended at $23.54, below the peak and just below the target. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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