Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 26, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$94.07 Published $114.77 Target $82.31 Window close $100.35 Peak
$93.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$94.07Published — price the day we called it
$114.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$82.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.35
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$82.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 26, 2025 – January 24, 2026

The thesis — published October 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$114.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.00 – $95.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$94.07
published October 26, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks temporarily out of favor, but several clear sparks could lift the stock soon. Robotaxi rides with WeRide are starting in Saudi Arabia, and Pershing Square owns 21%, which signals committed long-term support. Buying near recent prices aims for a next 0-3 month rebound if ride demand and advertising stay healthy. Key risks to watch are rule changes and shifting incentives as self-driving services roll out.

Primary drivers

  • Self-driving ride service with WeRide is starting in Saudi Arabia
  • Recent price looks beaten down while investor interest remains strong
  • Pershing Square owns 21%, showing strong, long-term investor support
  • Ride demand and advertising continue to help sales stay steady or grow

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 94.07 on 2025-10-26, with an expected 22% short-term move. The thesis pointed to self-driving ride service with WeRide starting in Saudi Arabia, a beaten-down recent price, Pershing Square's 21% ownership, and ride demand plus advertising helping sales stay steady or grow.

Inside the window from 2025-10-26 to 2026-01-24, UBER rose to 100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 6.7% peak gain. It stayed below the 114.77 target. The stock ended at 82.31. The thesis only partially played out, because there was an early rise, but it never got to the target and finished lower.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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