The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
P&G has dropped back to its long-term average price, and a key momentum gauge now says the shares look very cheap. In the past five times this happened, the stock bounced 8-10% within two months. The company has raised its dividend every year for 68 years and new items like the Swiffer PowerMop keep shelves fresh. As stores clear extra inventory, many analysts expect the price to work its way back to around $173.
Primary drivers
- Momentum signals suggest sellers are tired right where the long-term climb often rebounds.
- Independent ratings give P&G a perfect mark for profits growing faster than its stock price.
- New Swiffer PowerMop plus cost cuts aim to keep earnings growing about 8% a year.
- 68 years of dividend raises lure income buyers, especially while many other stocks look costly.
How it played out
PG: the target was never reached
Lyra published PG at $154.9 with an expected 10% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to a pullback toward its long-term average, a momentum gauge that made the shares look very cheap, past 8-10% rebounds, 68 years of dividend raises, the Swiffer PowerMop, cost cuts, and expectations for a move back toward around $173.
Inside the window, PG peaked at $160.55 on 2025-09-17, a 3.6% gain. That stayed below the $168.06 target. It never got there. The stock ended the window at $148.65, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out only in the early rise, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-29, Procter & Gamble reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.48 and revenue of $20.9 billion. The same article said the company named Shailesh Jejurikar as its next CEO, effective at the start of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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