Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$184.63 Published $228.94 Target $169.60 Window close $207.52 Peak
$181.00 – $185.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$184.63Published — price the day we called it
$228.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$207.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$169.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$207.52
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$169.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 25, 2025 – January 23, 2026

The thesis — published October 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$228.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$181.00 – $185.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$184.63
published October 25, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is benefiting from strong interest in AI, but the stock already looks expensive. A new multi-year deal with Lumen, around $200M, shows real customer demand and could add steady revenue. The price trend is still upward, though it recently cooled. Best to buy on pullbacks or after clear strength returns. In the next 0-3 months, fresh contract wins could keep shares rising if excitement revives and valuation worries stay contained.

Primary drivers

  • ~$200M Lumen deal likely adds dependable, repeat software revenue
  • Strong run recently; shares paused to catch their breath
  • Price bakes in big hopes, so swings and pullbacks are possible
  • More companies are starting to adopt AI tools like Palantir's

How it played out

PLTR: thesis only partly played out

Lyra published PLTR at 184.63 on 2025-10-25 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-23. The thesis expected 24% growth and pointed to a ~$200M Lumen deal, a still-upward trend that had cooled, high valuation risk, and wider adoption of Palantir-style artificial intelligence tools.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach 228.94. It peaked at 207.52 on 2025-11-03, with a 12.4% gain, then finished the window at 169.60. The target was never reached. The thesis partly played out early, then missed by the end.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-03, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year over year, and adjusted earnings of $0.21 per share. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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