Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 25, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 23, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 47 days.
The thesis — published October 25, 2025
Old National just posted strong Q3 numbers: sales jumped 44.9% from last year and profit per share rose 11% from last quarter, helped by its Bremer deal. That shows the plan is working and could lead the market to value the bank more highly. Many investors are upbeat, and shares still look cheaper than some fair estimates. Buying dips makes sense; if the price clearly tops recent highs, it signals strength is returning.
Primary drivers
- Q3 sales up 44.9% vs last year; per-share profit up 11% vs last quarter
- Buying Bremer is saving costs and lifting profits as teams combine
- Investor mood is very positive, and the business remains financially strong
- The stock price is below several fair value estimates from analysts
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 47 days
Lyra published ONB at $20.92 on 2025-10-25 with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Q3 sales up 44.9% from last year, per-share profit up 11% from last quarter, savings and profit lift from the Bremer deal, positive investor mood, financial strength, and a price below several fair value estimates.
Inside the window, ONB reached the $23.28 target in 47 days. The stock later peaked at $24.78 on 2026-01-22, for an 18.4% gain, then ended at $23.54 on 2026-01-23. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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