Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from October 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 23, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 25, 2025
AMD's price trend is still pointing up, helped by lots more people buying than usual and a firm recent average price. In Q4, sales rose 16% compared to last year, with data center chips doing most of the work, supporting the growing AI story. The stock is not cheap, so patience matters. Over the next 3 months, favor buying small dips and consider adding only if the price holds above $260 and keeps gaining.
Primary drivers
- Uptrend looks solid, with the recent average price still slanting upward.
- Quarterly sales rose 16%, with data center chips doing the heavy lifting.
- Plenty of buyer interest and a steady upward pace in recent trading action.
- Strong footing in AI chips should keep near-term orders and demand healthy.
How it played out
AMD: the target was not reached
Lyra published AMD at $252.92 on 2025-10-25 with expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to a solid uptrend, heavy buyer interest, quarterly sales up 16%, data center chips doing most of the work, and strong footing in artificial intelligence chips. It also noted that the stock was not cheap.
Inside the window, AMD rose to a peak of $267.08 on 2025-10-29, a 5.6% gain. That stayed below the $318.68 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended at $259.68 on 2026-01-23. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the full move it called for.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-04, AMD reported third-quarter 2025 results. Revenue was $9.2 billion, up 36% year over year, and data center revenue was $4.3 billion. On 2025-11-11, Tom's Hardware reported that AMD showed an updated CPU roadmap at Financial Analyst Day 2025, including Zen 6 and Zen 7 plans.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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