Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$182.98 – $186.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$186.25Published — price the day we called it

$230.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$187.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$187.67

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 25, 2025 – January 23, 2026

The thesis — published October 25, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$230.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$182.98 – $186.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$186.25

published October 25, 2025

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA remains a short-term core idea to buy on dips. Even with a brief lull in price strength, its lead in AI chips looks firm after Microsoft-backed Nscale lined up 116,000 GB300 GPUs (~$14B), making future demand clearer. With upbeat mood and a healthy market backdrop, pullbacks toward $183-$187 look appealing, and a close back above recent highs would show strength is returning.

Primary drivers

A ~$14B Nscale order for 116,000 AI chips shows demand is real and large
Leader in AI chips with strong price interest from many investors
Recent pause in price creates a near-term window to buy on dips with control
Positive investor mood and a clearer view of future orders and revenue

How it played out

NVDA: thesis only partially played out

Lyra published NVDA at $186.25 on 2025-10-25 with 24% expected growth and a $230.94 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, the Nscale order for 116,000 GB300 GPUs, broad investor interest, a pause in price strength, and a positive market backdrop.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 13.9% peak gain. It stayed below the $230.94 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-23, it ended at $187.67. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose quickly, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion and guided for $65 billion in the next quarter. On 2025-11-19, coverage also said the data center business reported $51.2 billion in revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals