Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
Investors worried about who will lead Berkshire after Warren Buffett, so the stock dropped roughly 9% and now trades at only 1.35 times the value of its assets, making it cheaper than usual. The company holds a record $189 billion in cash. Short-term trading clues say the heavy selling is easing. Berkshire typically starts buying back its own shares after August results, which has boosted the price within three months before. A climb toward about $510 seems realistic once buybacks restart and people remember the firm’s huge cash pile.
Primary drivers
- With $189 billion in cash, Berkshire can soon restart large share buybacks.
- The stock is cheaper than its 10-year average, which often leads to a bounce.
- Short-term trading signals suggest selling exhaustion after succession worries.
- Berkshire's many steady businesses can soften blows if the overall market swings.
How it played out
BRK-B: target was not reached
Lyra published BRK-B at $475.86 for a short-term window from 2025-07-12 to 2025-10-10. The thesis expected 11% growth. It pointed to $189 billion in cash, a cheaper-than-usual valuation, easing selling after succession worries, possible buybacks after August results, and steady businesses that could soften broader market swings.
The stock rose, but it did not reach the $528.20 target. Its peak was $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6.7% gain. It ended the window at $489.13. The thesis partially played out because price moved in the expected direction, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-02, Berkshire reported second-quarter operating earnings of $11.16 billion and cash, equivalents, and short-term Treasury bills of $344.1 billion. It also recorded a pre-tax Kraft Heinz write-down of $4.99 billion. The same report said Warren Buffett had said on 2025-05-03 that he would step down as CEO at the end of 2025, and that Berkshire's board approved Greg Abel as the next CEO the following day.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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