Track record · closed signal

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — closed signal from October 24, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026 — +4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SBH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.20 – $15.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.40Published — price the day we called it

$18.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$17.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$16.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 82% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+4.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$16.04

last close inside the window, ended January 22, 2026

Peak price

$17.92

peak on January 21, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$18.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.20 – $15.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.40

published October 24, 2025

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Sally Beauty looks beaten down but may be ready to rebound. A research note says the stock looks cheap versus its profits, and a new DoorDash deal lets shoppers get items fast, which can lift traffic. If same-store sales and inventory stay steady, the price could improve in coming months. Still, retail discounting and uneven demand could squeeze margins and slow the move.

Primary drivers

Price looks beaten down and may be forming a base for a rebound
Appears inexpensive versus profits, flagged by value-focused screens
DoorDash delivery lets customers get items fast, boosting visits
If shoppers return, sales can recover and support the stock

How it played out

SBH: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published SBH at $15.40 on 2025-10-24, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down stock, a possible rebound base, a low valuation versus profits, a DoorDash delivery deal, and a recovery if shoppers returned. It also named retail discounting and uneven demand as risks.

Inside the window, SBH rose but did not reach $18.48. The peak was $17.92 on 2026-01-21, with a 16.4% gain. It ended at $16.04 on 2026-01-22. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose meaningfully, but it stayed below the target. It never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SBH signals