Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 24, 2025
Palantir is still a fast mover, but the setup is mixed. A long-term deal with Lumen shows real demand for its AI tools, and interest and trading activity are high. Because one common momentum signal is still weak, we prefer buying in small steps on dips and after price proves strength. The stock can swing widely as results execution and a rich price tag make reactions in a shaky market bigger.
Primary drivers
- Lumen deal shows companies want Palantir's AI, backing its growth plan.
- Many buyers and positive buzz are keeping interest and price strength high.
- Recent average price is improving even while a common momentum gauge is soft.
- Big price swings mean position size should be modest to manage risk.
How it played out
PLTR: target was not reached
Lyra published PLTR at $185.44 on Oct. 24, 2025, with expected growth of 28%. The thesis pointed to the Lumen deal as evidence of demand for Palantir's artificial intelligence tools, high interest and trading activity, improving recent average price, and wide swings that called for modest position size.
Inside the window, the stock rose to a $207.52 peak on Nov. 3, 2025, a gain of 11.9%. It stayed below the $237.36 target and never reached it. By Jan. 22, 2026, it ended at $165.90. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On Nov. 3, 2025, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion and net profit of $475.6 million. It also raised full-year revenue guidance to between $4.396 billion and $4.400 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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