Track record · closed signal

Deere & Company (DE) — closed signal from July 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025 — -9.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$493.11 – $502.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$504.84Published — price the day we called it

$591.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$525.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$455.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-9.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$455.68

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2025

Peak price

$525.32

peak on July 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$591.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$493.11 – $502.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$504.84

published July 2, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price has dropped 15%, making it look cheap just as Deere bolsters its edge with a drone purchase and new self-driving machines. The stock now trades at 13 times next year’s earnings, far below its usual level, already assuming a mild slowdown. Sales updates in August and extra media attention could lift the price toward $590 within about three months.

Primary drivers

Heavy selling hints the slide is ending; past cases rebounded 16% in 90 days.
Buying Sentera drones boosts high-profit farm data subscriptions for steady cash.
Shares cost 13x next year’s profit, 20% cheaper than normal, leaving room to rise.
August updates and upbeat TV coverage may draw new attention and buyers.

How it played out

DE: target was never reached

Lyra published DE on 2025-07-02 at $504.84. The thesis expected 18% growth toward $591.60 in about three months. It pointed to a 15% drop, the Sentera drone purchase, new self-driving machines, a 13 times next-year earnings multiple, a 20% discount to the usual level, August updates, and possible media attention.

Inside the window, DE rose only as far as $525.32 on 2025-07-10, a 4.1% peak gain. It never reached the target. By 2025-09-30, it ended at $455.68. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On August 14, 2025, Deere reported fiscal third-quarter results and cut its fiscal 2025 net income outlook. The same day, Deere also raised its expected tariff costs for the fiscal year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All DE signals