Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 70 days.
The thesis — published October 24, 2025
Lam makes the machines that chip factories need for AI. The company expects record quarters above $5B because AI chips use more steps, which means more tools. They plan to have less than 30% of sales from China by 2026, easing rule-change risks. Big orders at ASML point to real demand across the industry. Buying interest has been strong lately, but prices can swing; factory cycles and export policies are the main risks.
Primary drivers
- AI chips require more factory steps, lifting demand for Lam's tools and services.
- Management guides to record $5B+ quarters, signaling strong sales ahead.
- Cutting China to under 30% by 2026 reduces exposure to changing trade rules.
- ASML's large orders signal chipmakers are expanding production industrywide.
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 70 days
Lyra published LRCX at $148.67 on 2025-10-24 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to chip factories needing more Lam tools for artificial intelligence chips, management guiding to record $5B+ quarters, lower China sales exposure by 2026, and ASML orders as a sign of broader industry demand.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $181.07 target in 70 days. It kept rising to a peak of $236.10 on 2026-01-22, with a peak gain of 58.8%. It ended the window at $220.70. The published thesis played out and then went past the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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