Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 24, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026 — +48.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$145.52 – $148.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$148.67Published — price the day we called it

$181.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$220.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 70 days.

At window close

+48.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+58.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$220.70

last close inside the window, ended January 22, 2026

Peak price

$236.10

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published October 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$181.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$145.52 – $148.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$148.67

published October 24, 2025

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam makes the machines that chip factories need for AI. The company expects record quarters above $5B because AI chips use more steps, which means more tools. They plan to have less than 30% of sales from China by 2026, easing rule-change risks. Big orders at ASML point to real demand across the industry. Buying interest has been strong lately, but prices can swing; factory cycles and export policies are the main risks.

Primary drivers

AI chips require more factory steps, lifting demand for Lam's tools and services.
Management guides to record $5B+ quarters, signaling strong sales ahead.
Cutting China to under 30% by 2026 reduces exposure to changing trade rules.
ASML's large orders signal chipmakers are expanding production industrywide.

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 70 days

Lyra published LRCX at $148.67 on 2025-10-24 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to chip factories needing more Lam tools for artificial intelligence chips, management guiding to record $5B+ quarters, lower China sales exposure by 2026, and ASML orders as a sign of broader industry demand.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $181.07 target in 70 days. It kept rising to a peak of $236.10 on 2026-01-22, with a peak gain of 58.8%. It ended the window at $220.70. The published thesis played out and then went past the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LRCX signals