Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026 — +16.1% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 48 days.
The thesis — published October 24, 2025
Old National looks like a steady, slow-and-sure bank pick. Recent quarterly results beat expectations, and everyday customer deposits grew at a 5.8 percent yearly pace. The CEO gained added industry standing as Vice Chair of the American Bankers Association. If credit worries keep fading, similar banks could rise over the next 0-3 months. Main risks: office/property loans and tougher funding if the economy cools.
Primary drivers
- Latest quarter beat expectations on profit per share and on sales
- Everyday customer deposits grew at a 5.8 percent yearly pace in Q3
- Investor mood is very favorable for quality banks right now overall
- Well-run Midwestern regional bank with steady, diversified business
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 48 days
Lyra published ONB at $20.88 on 2025-10-24 with a short-term thesis for 12 percent growth. The thesis pointed to a latest quarter that beat expectations on profit per share and sales, everyday customer deposits growing at a 5.8 percent yearly pace in Q3, favorable investor mood for quality banks, and a steady, diversified Midwestern regional bank profile.
Inside the 2025-10-24 to 2026-01-22 window, ONB reached the $23.24 target in 48 days. It later peaked at $24.78 on 2026-01-22, with an 18.7 percent peak gain, and ended at $24.24. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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