Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 48 days.
The thesis — published October 24, 2025
Old National looks like a steady, slow-and-sure bank pick. Recent quarterly results beat expectations, and everyday customer deposits grew at a 5.8 percent yearly pace. The CEO gained added industry standing as Vice Chair of the American Bankers Association. If credit worries keep fading, similar banks could rise over the next 0-3 months. Main risks: office/property loans and tougher funding if the economy cools.
Primary drivers
- Latest quarter beat expectations on profit per share and on sales
- Everyday customer deposits grew at a 5.8 percent yearly pace in Q3
- Investor mood is very favorable for quality banks right now overall
- Well-run Midwestern regional bank with steady, diversified business
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 48 days
Lyra published ONB at $20.88 on 2025-10-24 with a short-term thesis for 12 percent growth. The thesis pointed to a latest quarter that beat expectations on profit per share and sales, everyday customer deposits growing at a 5.8 percent yearly pace in Q3, favorable investor mood for quality banks, and a steady, diversified Midwestern regional bank profile.
Inside the 2025-10-24 to 2026-01-22 window, ONB reached the $23.24 target in 48 days. It later peaked at $24.78 on 2026-01-22, with an 18.7 percent peak gain, and ended at $24.24. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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