NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 24, 2025
NVDA may bounce in the next 0-3 months because the price looks washed out, more people are buying than usual, and the recent average price is turning up. Intel's strong AI data center results improved the mood for chip makers. SuperX funded an NVIDIA partner and began a liquid-cooling venture, pointing to ecosystem demand. If the price moves above a price ceiling, gains could continue. Risks: one trend signal still points down and earnings could cause big swings.
Primary drivers
- Price looks washed out; recent average price is turning up from a dip recently
- Intel's strong AI data center results improved investor mood for chips
- SuperX funded an NVIDIA partner and launched a cooling venture for servers
- Big spending on AI equipment suggests steady demand for NVIDIA's GPUs
How it played out
NVDA: rose early but target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at $185.14 on 2025-10-24 with 28% expected growth and a target of $236.97. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price, a recent average price turning up, stronger mood around chips after Intel's artificial intelligence data center results, SuperX funding an NVIDIA partner, and spending on artificial intelligence equipment.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29. That was a 14.6% peak gain, but it stayed below the $236.97 target. The target was never reached. The window ended at $184.84 on 2026-01-22. The thesis partially played out, with an early rise that faded by the end.
What happened during the window
On November 19, 2025, NVIDIA reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. On January 6, 2026, NVIDIA introduced DLSS 4.5 at CES 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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