Micron Technology Inc. (MU) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 61 days.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
Micron makes the memory chips that let AI servers, phones and cars think fast. There are too few of the newest high-speed chips, so prices are jumping. Micron expects sales next year of about $40 billion, yet the stock is still 12 % under its March peak and cheaper than past boom periods. Top third-party scores label it a leading tech pick and trading data show large investors buying ahead of the crowd. July price surveys and the next earnings call could push shares toward $140-$145 over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Short supply of newest high-speed memory is pushing contract prices up about 15 %.
- Top third-party rating this quarter shows the shares are cheap and gaining attention.
- Trading volume suggests large investors are buying before momentum screens flash green.
- Company targets $40 billion sales for FY25, promising better profit as the cycle improves.
How it played out
MU: target reached in 61 days
On July 12, 2025, Lyra published a short-term MU thesis at $124.4. It expected 16% growth toward $144.16. The thesis pointed to tight supply in newer high-speed memory, contract prices up about 15%, strong third-party ratings, large-investor buying signals, and a company sales target of $40 billion for FY25.
Inside the window, MU reached the target in 61 days. The stock later peaked at $200.92 on October 6, 2025, with a 61.5% peak gain. It ended the window at $181.53, still above the target. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On September 23, 2025, Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $11.32 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.03 per share. The company also guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to $12.20 billion to $12.80 billion. On October 2, 2025, TechRadar reported that Micron had begun shipping samples of HBM4 memory with more than 2.8TB/s of bandwidth.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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