Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.57Published — price the day we called it

$117.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$84.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$100.35

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$84.26

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 23, 2025 – January 21, 2026

The thesis — published October 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$117.90

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $95.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.57

published October 23, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks beaten down but still backed by big investors. On 10-22 it confirmed a $375M push into self-driving, which could open new growth later. In the near term, buying interest has picked up, but the recent average price and momentum still lean down. We would start small and add only if the trend turns up, aiming for a 0-3 month climb toward earlier highs if those signs appear.

Primary drivers

$375M confirmed for self-driving on 10-22, boosting future options
Shares look beaten down, yet investor mood remains positive
Downtrend persists; wait for real signs of a turn before adding
Rides and delivery orders keep growing, supporting the business

How it played out

UBER: the target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 93.57 on 2025-10-23 with a short-term thesis for 26% expected growth toward 117.90. The thesis pointed to a $375M self-driving push confirmed on 10-22, beaten-down shares, positive investor mood, growing rides and delivery orders, and the need to wait for a real turn in the downtrend.

Inside the window, UBER rose to 100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 7.2% peak gain. It never reached 117.90. By 2026-01-21, it ended at 84.26. The thesis partially played out on the early bounce, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On Nov 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter revenue of $13.47 billion and total trips growth of 22%. On the same date, Investor's Business Daily reported that UBER stock fell after those results, despite the earnings beat.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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