LendingClub Corporation (LC) — closed signal from October 23, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 21, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 23, 2025
Strong quarterly results pushed the stock up. Profit per share nearly tripled and sales rose 32%. The company expects to make $2.5B-$2.6B of new loans next quarter, showing solid demand. More buyers than usual are stepping in, and the recent average price is rising. Over the next 0-3 months, we look for gains on small pullbacks, while keeping an eye on borrowing costs and the risk that loan losses normalize.
Primary drivers
- Earnings nearly tripled and sales rose 32% in recent results.
- Next quarter loans expected at $2.5B-$2.6B, showing strong demand.
- More buyers than usual and the recent average price is trending up.
- Optimistic mood, but watch funding costs and normalizing loan losses.
How it played out
LC: thesis rose but missed the target
Lyra published LC on 2025-10-23 at $18.94 with a short-term thesis looking for 40% growth. The thesis pointed to earnings nearly tripling, sales up 32%, expected new loans of $2.5B-$2.6B next quarter, stronger buying, a rising recent average price, and risks from borrowing costs and normalizing loan losses.
Inside the window, LC rose, but it did not reach $26.52. The peak was $21.19 on 2026-01-08, a 11.9% gain. It ended the window at $19.92. The direction was partly right, but the target was missed. It never got there.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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