Track record · closed signal

LendingClub Corporation (LC) — closed signal from October 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 21, 2026 — +5.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.50 – $19.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.94Published — price the day we called it

$26.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$21.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$19.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$19.92

last close inside the window, ended January 21, 2026

Peak price

$21.19

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+40%

over the measurement window

Target price

$26.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.50 – $19.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.94

published October 23, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Strong quarterly results pushed the stock up. Profit per share nearly tripled and sales rose 32%. The company expects to make $2.5B-$2.6B of new loans next quarter, showing solid demand. More buyers than usual are stepping in, and the recent average price is rising. Over the next 0-3 months, we look for gains on small pullbacks, while keeping an eye on borrowing costs and the risk that loan losses normalize.

Primary drivers

Earnings nearly tripled and sales rose 32% in recent results.
Next quarter loans expected at $2.5B-$2.6B, showing strong demand.
More buyers than usual and the recent average price is trending up.
Optimistic mood, but watch funding costs and normalizing loan losses.

How it played out

LC: thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published LC on 2025-10-23 at $18.94 with a short-term thesis looking for 40% growth. The thesis pointed to earnings nearly tripling, sales up 32%, expected new loans of $2.5B-$2.6B next quarter, stronger buying, a rising recent average price, and risks from borrowing costs and normalizing loan losses.

Inside the window, LC rose, but it did not reach $26.52. The peak was $21.19 on 2026-01-08, a 11.9% gain. It ended the window at $19.92. The direction was partly right, but the target was missed. It never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LC signals