Track record · closed signal

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) — closed signal from October 23, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HRMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$28.78 Published $38.56 Target $35.91 Window close $40.87 Peak
$28.00 – $29.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$28.78Published — price the day we called it
$38.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$40.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$35.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 42 days.

Peak price
$40.87
peak on December 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+42%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$35.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
42
Window
October 23, 2025 – January 21, 2026

The thesis — published October 23, 2025

Predicted growth
+34%
over the measurement window
Target price
$38.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.00 – $29.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$28.78
published October 23, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony looks stronger because its latest report showed $239M in sales and a higher outlook for next year, easing worries from a recent study setback. Trading activity suggests more buyers than usual and the recent average price is edging up. Dips toward that recent average may attract buyers. In the next quarter, steady cash from Wakix could draw attention and help the stock move higher. That mix of better numbers and improving mood is a positive setup.

Primary drivers

  • Quarter beat and higher full-year outlook on 10-23, lifting investor confidence.
  • More buyers than usual, and the recent average price is turning upward.
  • Cash from Wakix helps fund growth and steadies the business over time.
  • Price action and company health point the same way, reducing mixed signals.

How it played out

HRMY: target reached in 42 days

Lyra published HRMY at $28.78 on 2025-10-23 with 34% expected growth. The thesis pointed to $239M in sales, a higher outlook for next year, stronger buying activity, a recent average price that was edging up, and steady Wakix cash that could support growth over time.

Inside the 2025-10-23 to 2026-01-21 window, the stock reached the $38.56 target in 42 days. It peaked at $40.87 on 2025-12-15, a 42% gain, then ended at $35.91. The thesis played out. The target was reached, even though the close stayed below the peak.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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