Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 23, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 21, 2026 — +58.6% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 71 days.
The thesis — published October 23, 2025
Lam Research is holding up while chip stocks wobble. The latest update shows record $5.3B sales, 50.6% gross margin, and 35% operating margin. By 2026, China should be about 30% of sales, aiding stability. Selling after TXN cooled momentum, but sentiment is upbeat and the recent average price is rising. AI spending should support orders; if buying returns, a 0-3 month rebound is possible.
Primary drivers
- Record sales and strong margins reported in the latest company update
- AI spending should lift demand for chip-making tools through 2026
- Selloff tied to TXN seen as short-lived versus Lam's business outlook
- Recent average price is rising; look for clear signs that buyers return
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 71 days
Lyra published LRCX at $143.97 on 2025-10-23 with a 0-3 month rebound thesis and expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to record $5.3B sales, 50.6% gross margin, 35% operating margin, China near 30% of sales by 2026, artificial intelligence spending, and buyers returning after TXN cooled momentum.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $181.11 target in 71 days. It kept rising to a $232.90 peak on 2026-01-21, with a 61.8% peak gain. It ended at $228.39. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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