Arista Networks Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 25 days.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
Arista is a key supplier for the huge new computer centers that run AI. It controls about a quarter of the fastest network gear, has orders booked for the next two years, and keeps over 60% of every sales dollar as gross profit. After Citi raised its price goal to $123, trading volume more than doubled, showing big investors are eager to buy, yet the stock is still 15% below that goal. A short pause near recent average prices could set up the next move higher when third-quarter spending plans are announced.
Primary drivers
- Big AI spending should let sales rise over 20% a year while keeping fat margins.
- Two-year order book and plenty of cash make delays or surprises less likely.
- Citi raising its target to $123 signals Wall Street sees more room to run.
- Trading volume more than doubled, showing steady buying by large investors.
How it played out
ANET: target reached in 25 days
Lyra published ANET at $108.57 on 2025-07-12 with 28% expected growth and a $138.97 target. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence data-center spending, about a quarter of the fastest network gear, orders booked for the next two years, gross profit over 60%, Citi's $123 price goal, and trading volume that more than doubled.
Inside the window, ANET reached the target in 25 days. It peaked at $162.68 on 2025-10-10, a 49.8% gain. It ended at $154.10. The published thesis played out, and the stock finished above the target.
What happened during the window
On Aug. 5, 2025, Arista reported second-quarter results; IBD reported adjusted earnings of $0.73, revenue of $2.205 billion, and 2025 revenue growth guidance raised to 25% from 17%. On Sept. 11, 2025, Arista held an analyst day; IBD reported a 2026 revenue forecast of $10.5 billion and artificial intelligence networking product revenue of around $2.75 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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