RTX Corporation (RTX) — closed signal from October 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026 — +11.6% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 83 days.
The thesis — published October 22, 2025
RTX looks like a short-term trade based on price strength, but with warnings. Many more buyers than usual and upbeat mood match recent talk of profits improving (net profit margin 7.7% vs 6% last year). The company's long-run numbers are still soft, so the run might not last. Over the next 0-3 months, consider riding the strength with clear exit points; news on defense programs and budgets could quickly move the stock.
Primary drivers
- Many more buyers than usual and heavy trading activity support the uptrend
- Recent updates point to profit margins improving compared with last year
- Rising government defense budgets likely support steady orders and revenue
- Past results are weaker, which could limit how long this strength continues
How it played out
RTX: target reached in 83 days
Lyra published RTX at $175.95 on 2025-10-22 as a short-term trade with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to unusually strong buying and heavy trading, improving profit margins of 7.7% versus 6% last year, rising defense budgets, and weaker past results that could limit the move.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $196.29 target in 83 days. It peaked at $203.03 on 2026-01-20, a 15.4% gain. It ended at $196.36, still above the target. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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