Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 78 days.
The thesis — published October 22, 2025
Old National is driven by business results first. Last quarter profit was $0.59 per share, and its lending margin inched up to 3.64%, which supports steady income and the chance for a higher market view of the stock. Price action is still choppy, so easing in on dips makes sense. Over the next 0-3 months, better views on loan quality and careful use of capital can help, while swings in regional banks remain a key risk.
Primary drivers
- Q3 profit was $0.59 per share, and lending margin improved to 3.64%.
- Steady earnings and a better outlook could lift the stock's valuation.
- Buy in small steps on dips while price trends stabilize and improve.
- Shares can swing on sector headlines and worries about rates or loans.
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 78 days
Lyra published ONB on 2025-10-22 at $20.64, with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to Q3 profit of $0.59 per share, lending margin of 3.64%, steady earnings, a better outlook for valuation, and careful buying on dips while price trends stabilized. It also named sector headlines, rates, and loan worries as risks.
Inside the window, ONB reached the target. The stock peaked at $23.75 on 2026-01-08, above the $23.59 target, and reached it in 78 days. It ended the window at $22.90. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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