Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from October 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$255.90 Published $301.76 Target $322.16 Window close $341.17 Peak
$252.17 – $256.67Entry zone — fair-value band
$255.90Published — price the day we called it
$301.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$341.17Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$322.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price
$341.17
peak on January 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$322.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
28
Window
October 22, 2025 – January 20, 2026

The thesis — published October 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$301.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$252.17 – $256.67
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$255.90
published October 22, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet looks buyable on weakness: more people are trading it than usual, the recent average price is edging up, and the price looks tired after a pullback. News is mixed: the UK regulator is asking questions, but new Samsung-Google XR devices and Android XR can boost interest. Over the next 0-3 months, buying dips makes sense as AI and hardware help growth, while keeping an eye on regulator news.

Primary drivers

  • More buying interest than usual, which often supports the price
  • New XR devices can spark fresh demand and lift interest in the stock
  • Multiple ways to grow: cloud services and AI tools expanding over time
  • Government reviews could slow plans or add costs, so risk remains

How it played out

GOOG: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published GOOG at $255.90 on 2025-10-22, with expected growth of 18% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to heavier buying interest, a recent average price edging up, new XR devices, cloud services, artificial intelligence tools, and government reviews as a remaining risk.

Inside the window, GOOG reached the $301.76 target in 28 days. It later peaked at $341.17 on 2026-01-13, a 33.3% gain. The window ended at $322.16. The published thesis played out, and the stock finished above the target.

What happened during the window

On October 22, 2025, Samsung and Google launched the Galaxy XR headset under Project Moohan. On October 29, 2025, Alphabet reported its first $100 billion revenue quarter, according to The Guardian.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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