Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$92.96 Published $113.41 Target $83.72 Window close $100.35 Peak
$91.50 – $93.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$92.96Published — price the day we called it
$113.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$83.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.35
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$83.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 22, 2025 – January 20, 2026

The thesis — published October 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$113.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$91.50 – $93.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$92.96
published October 22, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks due for a short-term rebound after a sharp sell-off, and overall mood around the stock is improving. New company moves help: up to $375M invested in Avride, and a rebrand to Uber Electric with $4,000 grants to help drivers switch, which can lower costs per trip. The recent trend is a bit weak, so consider buying in small steps with tight downside limits. Ride demand often gets stronger late in the year.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look beaten down and may rebound as selling pressure eases soon.
  • New Avride investment, up to $375M, signals growth push and partner momentum.
  • Uber Electric grants of $4,000 help drivers switch and can lower costs per trip.
  • Rides typically pick up late in the year, which can lift trips and revenue.

How it played out

UBER: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published UBER at $92.96 on 2025-10-22 with 22% expected growth in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a rebound after a sharp sell-off, improving mood around the stock, up to $375M invested in Avride, Uber Electric grants of $4,000, and stronger ride demand late in the year.

Inside the window, UBER rose to $100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 7.9% peak gain. It never reached the $113.41 target. By 2026-01-20, it ended at $83.72. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Uber reported third-quarter results, including revenue of $13.47 billion and gross bookings of $49.7 billion. On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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