Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026 — -9.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.50 – $93.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.96Published — price the day we called it

$113.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$83.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-9.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$83.72

last close inside the window, ended January 20, 2026

Peak price

$100.35

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$113.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.50 – $93.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.96

published October 22, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks due for a short-term rebound after a sharp sell-off, and overall mood around the stock is improving. New company moves help: up to $375M invested in Avride, and a rebrand to Uber Electric with $4,000 grants to help drivers switch, which can lower costs per trip. The recent trend is a bit weak, so consider buying in small steps with tight downside limits. Ride demand often gets stronger late in the year.

Primary drivers

Shares look beaten down and may rebound as selling pressure eases soon.
New Avride investment, up to $375M, signals growth push and partner momentum.
Uber Electric grants of $4,000 help drivers switch and can lower costs per trip.
Rides typically pick up late in the year, which can lift trips and revenue.

How it played out

UBER: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published UBER at $92.96 on 2025-10-22 with 22% expected growth in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a rebound after a sharp sell-off, improving mood around the stock, up to $375M invested in Avride, Uber Electric grants of $4,000, and stronger ride demand late in the year.

Inside the window, UBER rose to $100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 7.9% peak gain. It never reached the $113.41 target. By 2026-01-20, it ended at $83.72. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Uber reported third-quarter results, including revenue of $13.47 billion and gross bookings of $49.7 billion. On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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