Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 65 days.
The thesis — published October 22, 2025
Lam makes machines that build advanced chips. Demand is rising as AI needs more chip capacity, which helps sales of these tools. Even though a short-term momentum gauge looks weak, the recent average price still points upward, so buying on small dips makes sense. The market backdrop helps too: 85% of S&P 500 companies beat Q3 profit estimates, which lifts buying interest. Over the next 0-3 months, wait for higher highs to confirm, and note these stocks can swing a lot.
Primary drivers
- Rising AI data center spending lifts demand for advanced chip machines.
- Investors feel positive overall, while short-term momentum looks a bit weak.
- Many firms beat Q3 profit estimates, making investors more willing to buy.
- Plan is to buy in steps on minor pullbacks instead of chasing rallies.
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 65 days
Lyra published LRCX at 144.55 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to rising artificial intelligence data center spending, demand for advanced chip machines, a positive market backdrop, 85% of S&P 500 companies beating Q3 profit estimates, and a plan to buy minor pullbacks instead of chasing rallies.
Inside the window, LRCX reached the 178.95 target in 65 days. It peaked at 229.57 on 2026-01-15, for a peak gain of 58.8%. It ended the window at 222.41. The thesis played out, and the move went past the published target.
What happened during the window
On October 22, 2025, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter results: adjusted earnings of $1.26 a share on sales of $5.32 billion, and guidance of $1.15 a share on sales of $5.2 billion for the next quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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