Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026 — -2.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$178.98 – $182.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$182.10Published — price the day we called it

$227.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$178.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$178.07

last close inside the window, ended January 20, 2026

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$227.61

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$178.98 – $182.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$182.10

published October 22, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA's share price has pulled back, but trading is heavy and many buyers are stepping in. Demand for AI chips stays strong, and a new deal to help the Dominican Republic build a national AI center shows governments and companies want NVIDIA's tech. Short-term signs look tired, so consider buying in small steps on dips. Key risks: export limits and parts supply returning to normal, which could slow momentum.

Primary drivers

Price has fallen recently, but trading is heavy and buyers are active
Government AI deal adds fresh proof of real-world demand for NVIDIA
Broad need for AI chips across data centers keeps sales momentum strong
Plan is to buy dips in steps while short-term signals remain soft

How it played out

NVDA: target missed after an early 16.5% peak

Lyra published NVDA at $182.10 on 2025-10-22 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to a recent pullback, heavy trading, active buyers, demand for artificial intelligence chips, a Dominican Republic national center deal, and a plan to buy dips while short-term signals stayed soft.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 16.5% peak gain. It stayed below the $227.61 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-20, it ended at $178.07. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. On the same date, coverage reported that Nvidia guided for $65 billion in fourth-quarter revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals