NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 22, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 22, 2025
NVIDIA's share price has pulled back, but trading is heavy and many buyers are stepping in. Demand for AI chips stays strong, and a new deal to help the Dominican Republic build a national AI center shows governments and companies want NVIDIA's tech. Short-term signs look tired, so consider buying in small steps on dips. Key risks: export limits and parts supply returning to normal, which could slow momentum.
Primary drivers
- Price has fallen recently, but trading is heavy and buyers are active
- Government AI deal adds fresh proof of real-world demand for NVIDIA
- Broad need for AI chips across data centers keeps sales momentum strong
- Plan is to buy dips in steps while short-term signals remain soft
How it played out
NVDA: target missed after an early 16.5% peak
Lyra published NVDA at $182.10 on 2025-10-22 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to a recent pullback, heavy trading, active buyers, demand for artificial intelligence chips, a Dominican Republic national center deal, and a plan to buy dips while short-term signals stayed soft.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 16.5% peak gain. It stayed below the $227.61 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-20, it ended at $178.07. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the full target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. On the same date, coverage reported that Nvidia guided for $65 billion in fourth-quarter revenue.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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