Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) — closed signal from October 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 21, 2025
Marathon Digital mines Bitcoin, so its stock often moves with Bitcoin. We see early signs of a rebound: the price looks washed out, buyer interest is picking up, and our fair value is about $24.40. Big holders added Bitcoin recently, which can tighten supply. This is a jumpy stock, so use small positions and firm exits, aiming for a 0-3 month bounce if Bitcoin holds steady.
Primary drivers
- Our valuation math points to about $24.40 per share as a reasonable price
- Large Bitcoin-holding companies have been adding coins, reducing supply
- Price looks washed out and early buyer momentum is showing up again
- The stock swings hard; consider smaller positions to manage big moves
How it played out
MARA: target was not reached
Lyra published MARA at $20.44 on 2025-10-21 with a short-term bounce thesis. The thesis expected 45% growth and pointed to a $29.64 target. It also pointed to valuation work around $24.40, large Bitcoin holders adding coins, a washed-out price, early buyer interest, and the stock's hard swings.
Inside the window from 2025-10-21 to 2026-01-19, MARA peaked at $21.04 on 2025-10-21, a 2.9% gain. It stayed below the $29.64 target and never got there. The stock ended at $11.36. The thesis missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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