Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026 — +55.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$143.46 Published $186.20 Target $222.96 Window close $229.57 Peak
$141.53 – $144.52Entry zone — fair-value band
$143.46Published — price the day we called it
$186.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$229.57Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$222.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 76 days.

At window close
+55.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+60%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$222.96
last close inside the window, ended January 19, 2026
Peak price
$229.57
peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
76

The thesis — published October 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$186.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$141.53 – $144.52
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$143.46
published October 21, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research has pulled back and could rebound as buyers return, while demand for chip-making tools tied to AI stays strong. The stock has already doubled this year, and a respected quality checklist gives it a 100% score, suggesting solid execution. With earnings coming up, the plan is to buy in stages near the lower end of its recent range and aim for a recovery, while staying mindful of sharp swings around company and industry updates.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down and may rebound; near-term trading opportunity
  • AI growth boosts demand for chip factories, lifting need for Lam's tools
  • Trusted checklist rates the business at the top for quality and execution
  • Earnings are soon, which can move the stock up or down quickly

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 76 days

Lyra published LRCX at $143.46 on 2025-10-21 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to a pulled-back stock that could rebound as buyers returned. It also pointed to chip-making tool demand tied to artificial intelligence, a 100% quality checklist score, and earnings that could move the stock quickly.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $186.20 target in 76 days. It later peaked at $229.57 on 2026-01-15, with a peak gain of 60%. By 2026-01-19, it ended at $222.96. The thesis played out and went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-22, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on revenue of $5.32 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. The article also said Lam guided for $1.15 per share on $5.2 billion in revenue for the quarter ending 2025-12-28.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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