Track record · closed signal

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) — closed signal from October 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$86.59 Published $97.33 Target $88.38 Window close $97.76 Peak
$84.11 – $86.59Entry zone — fair-value band
$86.59Published — price the day we called it
$97.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$97.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$88.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$97.76
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$88.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 21, 2025 – January 19, 2026

The thesis — published October 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$97.33
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$84.11 – $86.59
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$86.59
published October 21, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Wells Fargo's stock has been climbing, with lots more people buying than usual and a healthy recent average price. Q3 revenue was $21.44B, above forecasts, and other big banks did well too, which helps. A customer fraud headline is a watch item, but the sector looks sturdy. Buying dips could work over the next 0-3 months as the path for interest rates becomes clearer and the stock aims for a gradual climb.

Primary drivers

  • Quarter 3 revenue was $21.44B, coming in higher than experts expected.
  • Buying interest is strong and the recent average price trend looks healthy.
  • Big banks overall reported steady, better-than-feared earnings results.
  • There was a customer fraud headline; watch for updates, impact appears limited.

How it played out

WFC: peak cleared the target, but finish faded

Lyra published WFC at $86.59 on 2025-10-21 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-19. The thesis expected 13% growth toward $97.33. It pointed to Q3 revenue of $21.44B, strong buying interest, a healthy recent average price trend, steady results from large banks, and a customer fraud headline to watch.

Inside the window, WFC peaked at $97.76 on 2026-01-05, with a peak gain of 12.9%. That price was above the target. It did not hold the move. The signal ended at $88.38, still above the $86.59 publication price but well below the peak. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Wells Fargo reported fourth-quarter results. MarketWatch reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.76 and revenue of $21.3 billion. The same report said the bank set a 2028 return on tangible common equity target of 17% to 18%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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