Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 21, 2025
Uber looks temporarily beaten down while its story is getting better. A plan with Lucid to add 20,000 self-driving taxis and a new self-driving service with Waymo in Austin could lift interest and usage. A rare 10-week research signal points to better-than-normal odds. With investors fairly upbeat, buying in steps aims for a 0-3 month rebound as the trend steadies and strong up days show lots more people are buying than usual.
Primary drivers
- Plan with Lucid to add 20,000 self-driving taxis
- Waymo starting self-driving rides in Austin on Uber
- Stock fell too far, setting up a short-term rebound
- Uncommon 10-week research signal for near-term upside
How it played out
UBER: target was not reached by Jan. 19
Lyra published UBER at $93.04 on Oct. 21, 2025, with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The thesis pointed to the Lucid plan for 20,000 self-driving taxis, Waymo self-driving rides in Austin on Uber, a short-term rebound after the stock fell, and an uncommon 10-week research signal.
Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on Nov. 3, 2025, for a 7.9% gain. It stayed below the $119.09 target and never reached it. By Jan. 19, 2026, it ended at $84.85. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On Nov. 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter results and said trips rose 22% to 3.5 billion. It also forecast fourth-quarter gross bookings of $52.25 billion to $53.75 billion. On Dec. 15, 2025, Reuters reported that the FTC and 21 states filed an amended complaint against Uber over subscription practices.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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