Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026 — -8.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.04 Published $119.09 Target $84.85 Window close $100.35 Peak
$91.50 – $93.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.04Published — price the day we called it
$119.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$84.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-8.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$84.85
last close inside the window, ended January 19, 2026
Peak price
$100.35
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$119.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$91.50 – $93.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.04
published October 21, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks temporarily beaten down while its story is getting better. A plan with Lucid to add 20,000 self-driving taxis and a new self-driving service with Waymo in Austin could lift interest and usage. A rare 10-week research signal points to better-than-normal odds. With investors fairly upbeat, buying in steps aims for a 0-3 month rebound as the trend steadies and strong up days show lots more people are buying than usual.

Primary drivers

  • Plan with Lucid to add 20,000 self-driving taxis
  • Waymo starting self-driving rides in Austin on Uber
  • Stock fell too far, setting up a short-term rebound
  • Uncommon 10-week research signal for near-term upside

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached by Jan. 19

Lyra published UBER at $93.04 on Oct. 21, 2025, with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The thesis pointed to the Lucid plan for 20,000 self-driving taxis, Waymo self-driving rides in Austin on Uber, a short-term rebound after the stock fell, and an uncommon 10-week research signal.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on Nov. 3, 2025, for a 7.9% gain. It stayed below the $119.09 target and never reached it. By Jan. 19, 2026, it ended at $84.85. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter results and said trips rose 22% to 3.5 billion. It also forecast fourth-quarter gross bookings of $52.25 billion to $53.75 billion. On Dec. 15, 2025, Reuters reported that the FTC and 21 states filed an amended complaint against Uber over subscription practices.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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