Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026 — +2.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$177.98 – $181.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$181.27Published — price the day we called it

$235.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$186.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$186.23

last close inside the window, ended January 19, 2026

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$235.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$177.98 – $181.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$181.27

published October 21, 2025

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA's stock has dropped sharply even though it remains a top name in AI chips. Independent forecasts say AI server spending could rise from $126B in 2024 to $1.84T by 2033, and car makers are adding more AI, pointing to wide demand. With sentiment improving and business results still solid, a 0-3 month rebound looks reasonable as buying steadies and the AI sector remains supportive of leaders like NVIDIA.

Primary drivers

AI server spending could surge to $1.84T, lifting demand for NVIDIA
Shares look washed out after a pullback, setting up a near-term rebound
NVIDIA leads in top-tier AI chips, a strong edge as AI adoption grows
AI features in cars add another route for steady, long-term growth

How it played out

NVDA: rebound rose, but target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $181.27 on 2025-10-21, looking for 30% growth to $235.64 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence server spending, a washed-out share price after a pullback, NVIDIA's lead in top-tier chips for artificial intelligence work, and more artificial intelligence features in cars.

The stock rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 17.1% peak gain, but it stayed below $235.64. It never got there. By 2026-01-19, NVDA ended at $186.23. The thesis partly played out because the rebound happened, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 28, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Nvidia planned a $1 billion stake in Nokia tied to a strategic partnership for networking technology. On Nov. 20, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue at $57.006 billion, up 62% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals