Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$181.27 Published $235.64 Target $186.23 Window close $212.18 Peak
$177.98 – $181.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$181.27Published — price the day we called it
$235.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$186.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$186.23
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 21, 2025 – January 19, 2026

The thesis — published October 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$235.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$177.98 – $181.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$181.27
published October 21, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA's stock has dropped sharply even though it remains a top name in AI chips. Independent forecasts say AI server spending could rise from $126B in 2024 to $1.84T by 2033, and car makers are adding more AI, pointing to wide demand. With sentiment improving and business results still solid, a 0-3 month rebound looks reasonable as buying steadies and the AI sector remains supportive of leaders like NVIDIA.

Primary drivers

  • AI server spending could surge to $1.84T, lifting demand for NVIDIA
  • Shares look washed out after a pullback, setting up a near-term rebound
  • NVIDIA leads in top-tier AI chips, a strong edge as AI adoption grows
  • AI features in cars add another route for steady, long-term growth

How it played out

NVDA: rebound rose, but target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $181.27 on 2025-10-21, looking for 30% growth to $235.64 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence server spending, a washed-out share price after a pullback, NVIDIA's lead in top-tier chips for artificial intelligence work, and more artificial intelligence features in cars.

The stock rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 17.1% peak gain, but it stayed below $235.64. It never got there. By 2026-01-19, NVDA ended at $186.23. The thesis partly played out because the rebound happened, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 28, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Nvidia planned a $1 billion stake in Nokia tied to a strategic partnership for networking technology. On Nov. 20, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue at $57.006 billion, up 62% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals