Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from October 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$256.35 Published $302.30 Target $330.34 Window close $341.17 Peak
$251.67 – $257.66Entry zone — fair-value band
$256.35Published — price the day we called it
$302.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$341.17Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$330.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$341.17
peak on January 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$330.34
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
October 20, 2025 – January 18, 2026

The thesis — published October 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$302.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$251.67 – $257.66
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$256.35
published October 20, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's pullback looks temporary as its cloud business keeps gaining. Google Cloud grew 32% compared to last year and is getting more profitable, which can lift overall earnings and justify the price. Investor mood is still solid. Short term, momentum looks soft, but the recent average price is rising and there's lots more buying than usual. Watch the Waymo review. Base case: a rebound in 1-3 months as cloud profits become clearer.

Primary drivers

  • Cloud sales are rising fast, and profit margins are improving steadily
  • Buyer interest looks strong, with higher-than-usual trading activity
  • New AI features boost engagement across Search, YouTube, and products
  • Waymo investigation is a risk that could cause bumps in the story

How it played out

GOOG: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published GOOG at 256.35 on 2025-10-20 with an expected 18% rise to 302.30. The thesis pointed to Google Cloud growth of 32% compared to last year, improving cloud profit margins, strong buyer interest, higher-than-usual trading activity, new artificial intelligence features across Search, YouTube, and products, and the Waymo review as a risk.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 30 days. It later peaked at 341.17 on 2026-01-13, a 33.1% gain. It ended the window at 330.34, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $102.35 billion, including Google Cloud revenue of $15.16 billion. On 2025-12-22, Alphabet announced an agreement to buy Intersect, a data center and energy infrastructure developer, for $4.75 billion in cash.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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