RTX Corporation (RTX) — closed signal from October 20, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 3 days.
The thesis — published October 20, 2025
RTX looks out of favor right now, but a new Pratt & Whitney engine just won approval in Europe, which should lift its commercial airplane business. At the same time, its defense work has a healthy pipeline of orders. Because price trends are still soft, treat this as a slow rebuild: consider buying on dips and giving it 1-3 months for a rebound as headlines improve and more buyers return. The setup is more about patience than speed.
Primary drivers
- EU approval for Pratt & Whitney's GTF Advantage engine supports sales
- Large, steady defense orders provide clearer revenue over the next years
- Stock has been weak; gradual rebuilding phase could set up a measured rebound
- Global air travel is improving, lifting demand for parts and maintenance
How it played out
RTX: target reached in 3 days
Lyra published RTX at 159.67 on 2025-10-20 with a short-term rebound thesis. The expected growth was 12%, with a target of 178.13. The thesis pointed to European approval for Pratt & Whitney's GTF Advantage engine, steady defense orders, a weak stock in a gradual rebuilding phase, and better global air travel demand for parts and maintenance.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 3 days. It later peaked at 202.17 on 2026-01-16, with a peak gain of 26.6%. It ended at 201.92 on 2026-01-18. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, RTX reported third-quarter earnings of $1.70 per share and sales of $22.5 billion. Barron's reported that the stock rose to $173.04 that day. On 2025-10-22, Investor's Business Daily reported that RTX had raised its full-year sales and profit estimates.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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