Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from July 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$70.75 Published $75.30 Target $65.58 Window close $71.40 Peak
$68.95 – $69.73Entry zone — fair-value band
$70.75Published — price the day we called it
$75.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$71.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$65.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$71.40
peak on July 1, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$65.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 1, 2025 – September 29, 2025

The thesis — published July 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$75.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$68.95 – $69.73
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$70.75
published July 1, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Coca-Cola shares are holding just above $71. The company is using cash to buy back its own stock and analysts have recently raised their earnings forecasts, both good signs. Investor surveys show very high confidence, and the stock usually moves less than the overall market, which can feel safer. With summer drink sales coming up, the price could gently climb toward $78 while paying a 3% dividend, offering a calm way to grow money this quarter.

Primary drivers

  • Recent analyst upgrade shows experts expect higher profits this quarter.
  • Company keeps reducing its share count, which can push each share's value up.
  • Very high investor confidence supports the idea of steady, low-drama growth.
  • Warm-weather drink demand should lift sales before the late-July results report.

How it played out

KO: target was not reached

Lyra published KO on 2025-07-01 at $70.75 with 8% expected growth and a $75.30 target. The thesis pointed to analyst upgrades, share buybacks, high investor confidence, lower market sensitivity, summer drink demand, and a 3% dividend. It expected a calm short-term climb during the quarter.

Inside the window from 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-29, KO peaked at $71.40 on 2025-07-01, a 0.9% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached it. The signal ended at $65.58. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2025, Coca-Cola said it planned to introduce a U.S. version of Coca-Cola made with cane sugar in the fall. The report said this version would sit alongside the existing product, not replace it.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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