Track record · closed signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — closed signal from October 20, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026 — -0.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$252.51 – $258.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$257.77Published — price the day we called it

$298.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$288.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$255.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-0.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$255.53

last close inside the window, ended January 18, 2026

Peak price

$288.62

peak on December 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$298.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$252.51 – $258.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$257.77

published October 20, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Apple looks appealing after a recent pullback. Early checks suggest the iPhone 17 sold 14% more than the prior model in the first 10 days in the U.S. and China, which should also boost service sign-ups. Price signals hint at stabilization, with the recent average price starting to firm. If the market stays steady, a 1-3 month rebound is realistic as product and service momentum builds.

Primary drivers

iPhone 17 off to a strong start, lifting near-term sales in U.S. and China
Services like iCloud, App Store, and TV stay steady and profitable
Price looks beaten down and is starting to steady near the recent average price
Big-company status draws steady interest and automatic buying from funds

How it played out

AAPL: target was not reached

Lyra published AAPL at $257.77 on 2025-10-20 with a 16% expected gain toward $298.73 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to iPhone 17 selling 14% more than the prior model in the first 10 days in the U.S. and China, steady Services demand, a price that looked beaten down, and steady fund interest in a large company.

Inside the window, AAPL rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $288.62 on 2025-12-03, a 12% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-18, it ended at $255.53. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On October 30, 2025, Apple reported September-quarter revenue of $102.5 billion, with records for iPhone and Services revenue. On January 12, 2026, Apple and Google announced a multi-year Gemini partnership for Siri and future artificial intelligence features.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AAPL signals